How do I feel about the Nats?

Several friends have asked me if I was pulling for the Nats with my O's out and how I feel about them losing in the first round again. Here are my thoughts- that have pretty much remained consistent over these years. Would love to especially hear from my fellow Orioles/DC Sports fans how they feel about this.

First of all, I legitimately hate it for many of my friends who are legit, die-hard Nats fans. As fans, it hurts when our teams lose. And several of you Nats fans are also fellow "DC Sports" fans (Redskins, CAPS, Wizards) like me. We have won- and lost together, in amazingly painful ways over the years. I'm genuinely sorry for your pain of going through another postseason dagger. I want you to be happy and experience some sports joy!

Secondly, I wonder if the Nats would win, if it perhaps can contribute to infuse an aura of confidence in our overall local DC Sports culture- in essence contributing to lift what seems to be something of a shroud of "doom and gloom" expectation that many fans seem to embrace and expect lately, especially as the years of futility and heartbreak continue to mount. Though I emphatically believe there is no DC Sports "curse", one thing I wonder is if the growing heartbreak has such an effect on fans psyche and expectations, that perhaps can sometimes translate to have a negative affect on our teams? I do believe teams can possibly feed off of their fans expectations- positively and negatively at times. Should they? No. And perhaps this is a reach in my thinking. But if perhaps Nats success could positively affect and somehow help the other DC teams that I love ('Skins, CAPS, Wizards), this would be an attractive, silver lining factor for me to be ok if the Nats succeed. Still, can't say conclusively if this possible factor is legit or not. Speculation yes, but not certain conclusion.

But year after year, I continue to land on this leaning, thus why I am ok with the Nats not succeeding: I believe that if the Nats succeed more than my Orioles, it would do more hurt to my beloved Birds than good. While on one end Nats success can do positive things, like boost the MASN ratings and revenue (that of course the O's continue to benefit from!), and perhaps even drive Angelos more to up the ante and do what it takes to maintain regional supremacy, I still believe a lot more damage to the O's can come from Nats success. A huge factor is overall fan popularity, revenue and regional supremacy. Though Nats fans hate to admit it, the DMV is still dominated by more O's fans b/c of not only our many more years and local roots while DC had no team, but also b/c of the overwhelming amount of greater historical success that my Birds can boast. The reality is that there are many "fans"- casual baseball fans- who are kind of on the fence between the two teams, some who actually pull for both, and some who are undecided who to give their allegiance to. There are also young, legit baseball fans growing up in the DMV who are in their formative years and perhaps are trying to land on who their team will be- going forward. Maybe their parents are O's, or Nats fans, and they are trying to decide where they land. A decision that can have massive long-term effects on these 2 franchises. If the Nats succeed more, I would imagine that this chunk of fans would shift more to the Nats, therefore helping their revenue more, and hurting my O's succeed more in the long-term. I want my O's to continue to win- and to always stay in Baltimore with no risk of ever leaving. I believe a big part of this is for the O's to continue to dominate the region, and maintain fan supremacy- fiscally and numerically.

On the flip side of how the Nats winning could take more fans that could otherwise go with the O's, I am already hearing from some Nats fans who are so over the annual heartbreak, that they are going to the O's! No complaints there!

Yes, I have clearly spent, what is probably too much time thinking about this trivial and non-important issue! There are certainly more important things to ponder a lot more. But a lot of you know how much I love my teams, and my sports. I don't take anything in life lightly and go all in with fierce intensity with my pursuits, thoughts and interests.

Then on top of these thoughts that I have ruminated on, I came across this piece by Al Galdi (fellow DC Sports/O's fan!), who in my opinion is one of the- and perhaps the most insightful and sharp MLB local sports radio/media analysts. As expected, he does an incredible job of breaking down not only how and why the Nats continue to lose in the postseason, but also insert this little part at the end- which resonates similarly to what I am explaining:

"These Nats playoff failures are bad for baseball in D.C. Yes, I know that’s an obvious thing to say, but here’s what I mean. Game 5 on TBS got a 14.0 television rating in the D.C. market. That’s the second-best rating ever for a Nats game locally (the 2012 NLDS Game 5 loss to St. Louis is no. 1 at 16.7). But this Game 5 got a 22.9 rating in Chicago. For comparison’s sake, the Redskins’ have drawn the following ratings over the first four weeks of the 2017 regular season: 19.1, 20.5, 23.3, 23.2. So while the Nats have a terrific fan base, there still is a ways to go. How do you enlarge a fan base? By making deep playoff runs. That’s how the Redskins became such a big deal in this city. And that’s what it will take for Nats do-or-die playoff games to do better than two-thirds of what Redskins regular-season games do."

And here is especially the dagger thats stands out- the very last sentence in his piece:

"Additionally, deep Nats playoff runs would go a long way toward reducing the still-sizable Orioles fan base in the DMV."

Spot on. This is why, though I legitimately hurt for my fellow Nats sports buddies, I am perfectly content with the Nats continued postseason failures. 

PC: Dan Steinberg, AKA: "D.C. Sports Bog

Boston Strong

Boston has become one of my favorite places in the country to visit. I love this city for several reasons. First off, as a lover of history I love the rich U.S. history represented in this city. I love the many colleges represented and the high-energy that I have seen here. As a huge sports fan, even though I pretty much despise all Boston sports teams, I love how great of a sports town Boston is. The fans are passionate, fiercely loyal, very intelligent, and in my personal experiences within the city, mostly classy. It is hard to top Boston sports fans when it comes to their deep devotion and team support. Sports is an integral part of their lives and mostly dominates their conversations and local headlines.

I first came here in 2009 because of a business conference, that is run by Buffini and Company, the business coaching network that I am a member of in my real estate career. During that trip, I actually met Brian Buffini, along with his daughter, Anna during halftime of the Wizards/Celtics game in the Garden. Yes, my Wizards (and Orioles) just happened to be in town at the same time! Brian (also a huge sports fan) and I laughed about how great it was that not only could I be there for the conference, but also enjoy two of my teams in town. I had a great plan to go to the conference, see my teams in live action, and also spend some time with one of my cousins, who was going to school at Northeastern. 

With Brian Buffini in 2009 at Celtics/Wizards game!

And of course during that trip, I also made my long-awaited visit to one of the most hallowed places in baseball history, Fenway Park, as the O's were in town to play the Sox. If you have never been to Fenway, this experience alone is always worth the trip. Fenway Park has such rich history, and is undoubtedly one of the crown jewels of not only baseball stadium experiences, but in all of sports. 

Field Tour of Fenway Park in 2009

Also during that initial trip in 2009, I was able to experience what this great city was like during Patriots Day weekend, which commemorates the battles of Lexington and Concord, in 1775. Patriots Day is a great day of celebration and pageantry in this city, and always takes place on the third Monday in April. A huge part of Patriots Day is the Boston Marathon, which in my opinion is the most prestigious and best marathon in the world. Many of you know that I have done a lot of running during my lifetime. Though I haven't done a lot of races in the past few years (mostly due to my busy season of life), I love running. I belong to a family of runners. My dad has run more miles in his lifetime than most people you will ever meet. My Mom has also run several races and marathons, all across North America. My wife also loves to run. And my wife's parents have been active runners for years and are very involved in the local running community in our area. Being in town during the famed Boston Marathon is a treat in itself as the city is invaded by runners- the very best runners- from all over the world, bringing a unique and exciting energy during the weekend. 

I also have good friends here that I have known for many years, as well as others that I have met from business conferences and sporting events. 

I first met the Lukens' family in 1997 when I was living in Tennessee during part of my college years. Mark and Kristen Lukens had moved to TN from Boston and were active members- leading the college and career ministry- of the local church we all went to, Mill Springs Baptist Church. They were like second parents to many of us, always hosting massive events in their home outside of church services: Sunday meals, fun activities, prayer meetings, Bible studies, and a host of other things. Unquestionably some of the most hospitable people you will ever meet. They love the Lord, family (have 6 of their own children and have adopted 7 others!), sharing the gospel of Christ, and building His Church. And just like most of Boston, they also love their local sports. After moving from TN to do mission work in Russia for a few years, they eventually moved back home to Boston to plant a church, where Mark is lead pastor. Spending time with them every trip I make to Boston is one of the highlights of the year. I am always encouraged and strengthened in my walk with the Lord when with them. I am amazed at how family life functions in their home, and as a young parent, have learned and observed so much from them over the years. I love how their children (all of whom I first knew when they were very young- and born!), are all close to their parents, to each other, and how much they serve their younger adopted siblings. And they have lots of fun. 

Lukens Family- minus 5 of their most recent adopted children!

And on a fun side note, I also love the food here! I often tell my wife that even my regular visits to Regina Pizzeria and dessert at Mike's Pastry- both of which Mark introduced me to- make the trip worth it!

After coming back in 2010 and 2011 for business conferences (and trips to Fenway on Patriots Day weekend!), I brought my entire family for a very special trip in 2012. My father-in-law, who as mentioned was an avid runner, accomplished a bucket list dream: he qualified for the Boston Marathon! Here's the thing about qualifying for Boston: not only is it arguably the hardest marathon in the world to qualify for, but even when you qualify, you are then placed in your age group of "qualifiers", to also then qualify within that group! So yes, just because you qualify on the extremely tough front end, it doesn't even guarantee you will make the cut on that back end in final qualification! We were all so happy for him when he qualified, and then officially got in for his first ever, qualified entry in this elite and prestigious race. We immediately booked our hotel and flights. 2012 was going to be a very special family event for Patriots Day weekend! We did the Freedom Trail, went to the Aquarium, ate some great great food, and a whole lot more. I also took my wife and kids to their first trip to Fenway. 

Sweet Fenway experience with Tess and the boys

After the game, Tess and I took the boys to go meet the Lukens' for the first time. As always, such a great time staying with them! 

Then on Patriots Day, my father-in-law was ready. It was marathon time! And according to plan, I actually jumped in at around mile 16 and ran over 6 miles with him.

Included in this stretch that he requested I run with him was the famous "Heartbreak Hill", at around mile 20.5. Running this portion with him made me all the more aware of how incredible this race is- and how special it is to the people of Boston! The enthusiasm and support of so many thousands of spectators along the way was breathtaking. There wasn't a step we took, or a view we had that didn't include cheering spectators all around us. Among these were people in their neighborhoods just sitting outside of their homes, and many of them giving away popsicles, food, water, and beer! I can't emphasize enough how much fun this was to take in. People were lined up wanting to high-five us, (some trying to kiss us), and do all that was in their power to make this prestigious and challenging race all the more enjoyable for all the runners. 

Running behind Paul as we approach Boston College

And let me also say that it was especially crucial that these many volunteers and spectators did all they could to make this 2012 race more enjoyable, because the temperatures were unseasonably hot, and downright brutal, reaching the high 80's! Definitely not ideal running conditions. Because of the heat, many runners decided to defer this race for the next year. Some had severe heat issues and couldn't finish. And sadly, I believe a few people also died because of extreme heat conditions. We were all so proud of Paul for finishing. It was a very special family memory and trip. And being there with Paul for his long-awaited Boston Marathon accomplishment, enhanced my love all the more for this great sporting event, and this great city. 

In 2013, the Orioles were once again back at Fenway prior to Patriots Day weekend. It was during this series that I first met Geoffrey Beauman, a local Boston-area native who is also a die-hard Orioles fan with Maryland family connections. We sat down by the Orioles dugout, and watched the O's do what they usually do these days in Fenway: beat the Sox. In the ninth inning, JJ Hardy smoked a liner down the 3rd base foul line. Right off the bat I saw that it was making a beeline for me. I immediately reached out and prepared to barehand it as it smacked hard off the ground, and right up off the palm of my hand. Stung unlike anything I had ever felt before. What made the pain worse was that someone else got the ricochet ball! Still wish I would have been able to get that ball! But a great memory for Geoffrey and I, and our O's friendship began. 

Per usual, I stayed with the Lukens' family during the weekend, then headed back into the city to enjoy part of Patriots Day, prior to flying back home later that day. But this Patriots Day, April 15, 2013, would turn into a day unlike any I have ever experienced. Having participated with my family in the marathon the year before, I was more familiar with the course and spectator spots. Right around the time when the winners would cross the finish line, I walked down near the finish line to take it in. As expected, the energy and excitement of the crowd was spectacular. It was as if all of Boston was willing these runners to finish strong down the final stretch on Boylston street. I happened to catch a few pics, which I had completely forgotten about until digging back in my photo album.

Little did I know that just a few yards to my left a couple hours later, an event would occur that would forever change this great city. I left that area shortly after to go get some food and go for a walk down by the Boston Common. Later on, I came back near the finish on the other side of the street right across from this picture, at the Lenox Hotel. A few minutes after arriving, a loud explosion went off across the street about 50 or so yards away from me- to the left of this picture I took. I'll never forget my initial reaction, thinking it was perhaps some kind of a celebratory, Patriots Day-like cannon, or something along those lines. Then within about 10 seconds, another explosion happens across the street, about a hundred yards or so away from me. We all immediately knew what was going on. These were bombs. Shock and panic ensued among the spectators as we saw the blasts right before our eyes. I was stunned and immediately overcome with the direct effect of terror as I witnessed people crying in horror and fleeing the scene. Was there going to be another bomb? I immediately called my wife. Everyone there became family. Boston became family. I prayed with people. I hugged people. I tried my best to help and encourage people. People were frantically trying to track down loved ones who were running and meeting them somewhere. The immediate response and resolve of the Boston PD and the countless volunteers, law enforcement, and responders was heroic. So many citizens of Boston were heroic as immediate unity and love ensued. One of those many heroes was a young man I met that afternoon during the frantic scramble to navigate through town in hopes of getting home that night. Because the T-lines and public transportation were immediately shut down, I then had to find alternative options to get to Boston Logan for my flight home. I was in a shop asking for input, when a young college student named Mike Muse, without hesitation kindly offered to drive me to the airport, so I could catch my scheduled flight home to be with my precious wife and kids. I will never forget Mike. I contact him every year on Patriots Day.  The memory of that particular Patriots Day will forever be etched in my mind and never be forgotten. I am so grateful The Lord spared me that day and brought me home to my family. My love for the city of Boston went to a deeper level as I experienced those incredible things. Though I had enjoyed visiting this city prior to this day, I then knew I wanted to keep coming back to participate with this city as much as possible, especially during this day. The love for these people became deep, and strong. Boston Strong. 

Though I wasn't able to come back in 2014 for the especially epic Boston Marathon- the great and immediate redemption from the 2013 Bombings- I was able to come back as hoped in 2015. 

Once again, my Orioles were at Fenway to play the Sox during Patriots Day weekend. And once again, Geoffrey Beauman and I would hook up and watch our O's in what would become our spot: behind the O's dugout, around the 3rd base line. In the Friday night game, while cheering on our Birds and of course wearing our gear to stand out, Manny Machado tossed a ball up to me while getting the final out of the inning and jogging off the field into the dugout. I was elated and stunned, as was Geoffrey. We both laughed about how appropriate it was that after having the foul ball smack off my hand 2 years before, I now got sweet redemption! But as amazing as that was, the next day would get even better. First, Adam Jones would toss me a ball after recording the final out in between innings. Once again, both Geoffrey and I were stunned. And then, as if 2 balls weren't enough, Chris Davis would also join in on the fun and toss me one! Not only were Geoffrey and I stunned, but the surrounding Sox fans were stunned. One of them even asked me if I would give one of my balls to a kid- a Sox fan, nearby. Sorry Sox fans, but no. I wasn't going to do do this. I was going to keep the balls for my kids. Yes, 3 baseballs. I was pretty happy. 

Jones and Crush on left. Baseballs from left to right: Machado, Jones and Davis. 

Then to cap off the fun of getting the game balls, I would capture on video a Crush HR, further extending the O's lead, and once again leading to victory. 

I stayed with the Lukens' that weekend. And I went to Fenway on Monday, and watched part of the marathon, prior to going home that night. It was so great to be back for Patriots Day weekend, for the first time since 2013. Then last year, I came back once again for a couple day weekend trip. 

In January, I would see the highly anticipated movie- at least for me: "Patriots Day", with Mark Wahlberg. In fact, when I was here, either in 2015 or perhaps even in '16, I remember the buzz about Wahlberg being down near the finish line early in the morning with some of the filming. It was an absolutely outstanding and riveting movie on so many levels. From start to finish, this movie did a magnificent job of giving us a snapshot into the lives of the many people involved, recounting key events before and after the bombings, and showing how these terrorists were brought to justice. I was on the edge of my seat as I re-lived these events unfolding and recounted details of what took place in the aftermath. Waves of emotions came flooding back to me as I rooted for these terrorists to be caught, observed how these things affected the people of the city- especially those directly affected- and cried for the lives lost and injured. Mark Wahlberg absolutely killed it. The overall supporting cast killed it. The soundtrack was great. The flow and suspense of the movie was great. Again, they nailed it. I broke down and wept at the very end, as they showed the names and pictures of the victims, one of them being a nine year old boy. 

An appropriate quote in the movie by one of the victims, Patrick Downes, was: "There are 3 things you do on Patriots Day in Boston: run the Boston Marathon, watch the Boston Marathon, or go watch the Sox at Fenway." So true. This is indeed Boston on Patriots Day.

And then last night after family Easter service and time together, I flew in again for a brief couple of days to enjoy what has now become a fun spring time tradition. I immediately went over to Regina's for dinner and while there, got to sit with Sean Reynolds and his crew, who work with Sportsnet Canada- the ESPN of Canada- who are here covering the Bruins/Senators series! We had such a great time. On a side note, Sean said he thinks the Caps will win the Cup, and that if they are in the ECF, his crew would be in DC covering the series. Hope to hook up at some point down the road. 

With Sean Reynolds in Pizzeria Regina's

What a great city. I love the people here, and look forward to many years of enjoying this fun Patriots Day tradition. Stay strong, Boston. Stay Boston Strong!

Our Time

Heartbreak. Failed expectations. "Choking Dogs". "Crapitals". The DMV has heard it all in the 42 years since the Washington Capitals came to the district. 

For the better part of their existence, the Capitals have absolutely been a great, winning franchise. Year after year, they have made fantastic and countless runs in the regular season, only to get ousted in the playoffs- often much earlier in the playoffs than anticipated based on their seeding. And in most heartbreaking fashion, out of the few times in NHL history that a team has lost a 3-1 series lead, the Caps unfathomably lead the way with five 3-1 leads, that turned into gut-wrenching series losses. No other franchise has had this happen to them more than two times since the Caps came into the league in 1974. Apart from making the Stanley Cup Finals once in 1998, and the Conference Finals one other time in 1990, even with all the dominant teams that were supposed to make deep post-season runs, there have been no other runs past the conference semi-finals.

I will insert, however that out of the many times we (yes, most of you know I am a "we" fan guy!) have painfully blown 3-1 leads, amazingly there have also been two times that we have comeback from 3-1 deficits!

First, there was the 1988 first round vs the rival Flyers when the Caps stormed back and Dale Hunter scored "the goal" in OT of game 7 to dramatically clinch the comeback. It is widely considered one of the best moments in Caps history. 

And then in 2009, the higher seeded Caps trailed the Rangers 3-1, but would also storm back to stun their rivals and close them out at home in game 7. With 5 minutes remaining and the game knotted at 1, the veteran Sergei Fedorov scored the dramatic game, and series-clinching goal to complete the comeback. Personally for me, I had been a casual Caps fan since childhood, going to an occasional game here and there, and mostly following them when they made it to the playoffs. Though I did and still do consider them in the second tier level of my favorite teams (with the Redskins and Orioles always at the top), I think it was in this moment that a new interest and excitement about this franchise, and hockey took off. I embraced the greatness and epic drama of NHL playoff hockey in a unique way for the first time. Along with many DMV area sports fans, we have been hungry for a perennial championship contender. And now we could say that the Capitals were this. It was a very sweet moment. A moment that in many ways really helped launch the "Rock The Red" era.

Since the "Rock The Red" era really began towards the end of the 2008 era, with the young and hungry Ovechkin-led squad catching fire and improbably winning their first division championship of the era, the Caps have boasted the best overall cumulative record in the NHL, with year after year of dominance. Sometimes, historic dominance. Yet year after year, the movie has ended in the same fashion: most often a loss in the conference semi-finals. 

After the dramatic 7 game clincher vs the Rangers, the Caps would revert back to their old, historic ways, by blowing a 2-0 series lead vs, none other than the hated Penguins. Yes, out of the five times the Caps have blown 3-1 series leads, the Penguins have come back on us twice. So once again, they would erase a 2 game deficit to fuel the rival hatred all the more. 

The 2009-10 season looked to be different. The surging Caps would finally break through. They would not be denied, right? Accomplishing a franchise record 121 points, the Presidents Trophy winners would enter the playoffs a heavy favorite. But in the first round, after once again jumping out to a 3-1 series lead, we would once again let history rear its ugly head, and drop a 7 game heartbreaker to the 8th seeded Montreal Canadiens. 

The Caps would win in the first round in the 2011 and '12 seasons. In 2012, after Bruce Boudreau was fired mid-season, long-time Caps legend Dale Hunter would come on the scene and lead the Caps towards a late-season run, finishing as the 7th seed in the playoffs. In the first round vs the favored, and defending Cup champion Bruins, the Caps would win game 7 in the Garden on Joel Ward's dramatic OT goal.

It was definitely another one of the sweetest moments in Caps history. Once again we asked the question: could this be it? Perhaps after the years of being the heavy favorites, the Caps would fly under the radar and actually be the team to upset the favorites. It was a fun ride. But once again in gut-wrenching fashion, the Caps would lose in 7 games to the Rangers. In game 5, the Caps looked to be heading towards a huge victory, and seizing control of the series. But with just 5 seconds left (after a horrible call to give the Rangers a 2 man advantage), the Rangers would improbably tie the game at 2, sending it to OT. And on a side note, it was so brutal having to listen to the Rangers awful goal song with all their delirious fans screaming in euphoria. We all knew what would happen then and on cue, the Rangers would indeed steal the victory, take a 3-2 series lead, then win back in The Garden in game 7. 

In the 2014-'15 season, under first year Caps coach Barry Trotz, though they finished second in the fierce Metro division to the Presidents Trophy winning Rangers, the Caps surged down the stretch and entered the playoffs a hot team. After beating a tough Islanders team in 7, the Caps once again played a familiar playoff foe in the rival Rangers. When the Caps jumped out to a surprising 3-1 lead there were mixed emotions. On one end it seems like we as fans were optimistic and hopeful that perhaps WE would be the ones who would finally oust a mighty favorite, after all the years of falling short. WE were the ones who would ride the hot goalie through the post-season, and defeat a team with loftier expectations. Would this finally be our time? But on the other end of it, were were holding our breath and staring history in the face. Another 3-1 series lead. Surely we wouldn't blow it again. There is no way this could happen. Again. But yes, history of painful blown leads would once again re-visit its ugly head and the Rangers improbably came back to win in 7 in OT. And once again, having to listen to that awful goal song!

I'll never forget seeing Braden Holtby laying on the ice after the game-winning goal lit the lamp. The Garden was in a frenzy. The Caps were stunned. Yes, it happened again. Another gut-wrenching 3-1 series loss. The memory of Braden Holtby laying on the ice stayed with me in the offseason. I couldn't believe it happened again. How would the Caps respond? How would the long-suffering fans respond?

In the offseason, the Caps made a huge splash by trading for TJ Oshie. Oshie is most famously known for his heroics in the 2014 Olympics, by almost single-handedly helping team USA knock off the heavily favored Russians. So now Oshie was paired with Ovi and Backy. Holtby was turning into a top notch goalie. And on top of this, multi-Stanley Cup winner Justin Williams also signed with the Caps. 

I was convinced the 2015-16 season was it. Still seething from the game 7 loss to the Rangers and seeing Braden Holtby laying on the ice after the puck cleared to clinch the series, I was hopeful that the team was ready, with fierce resolve, to make the long-awaited Stanley Cup championship run. 

As expected, the Caps dominated the regular season, in historic fashion and cruised to the Presidents Trophy for the second time in the Rock The Red era. But this team was different. Unlike the '10 Presidents Trophy winners, this team looked better and was ready for the deep- hopefully championship playoff run. We had Oshie. We had Williams. And as hoped, Braden Holtby indeed turned into an elite goalie. All the pieces were in place. But once again, it was the hated Penguins- who really turned it on in the 2nd half of the season and was the only team who could have beaten us- defeating us in crushing fashion in the 2nd round. Once again, it was an excruciating, OT loss that sealed it. How could this happen again? The Penguins- again?! And once again, Braden Holtby laid stunned on the ice after seeing the game and series-clinching goal light the lamp, while the home team went crazy. 

How in the world did this happen again? Was there any way the Caps could recover from that, and come back this year- perhaps with even more resolve?

In what is perhaps the best division the NHL has ever seen- certainly the best I can recall during my lifetime- the 2016-17 CAPS still seized control and emerged #1 in the Metro. And not just #1 in the fierce Metro division competition, but once again, #1 in the entire NHL, locking up the Presidents Trophy- for the 2nd straight season. This is the most dominant 2 season stretch in the regular season I have ever seen- Caps, anyone. This team is extremely talented and balanced, with deep depth on all 4 lines. They have front line superstars in Ovi, Backy, and Oshie. They have all-stars and rising stars in Shattenkirk, Kuzy, and Burky. They have an elite goalie in Holtby, and a solid backup in Grubauer. They have a proven, multi-champion leader in Justin Williams. They have defensive studs, and another Cup Winner in Orpik. And they are extremely well coached by Trotz. 

Yes, last years team was historically good and if not for running into the red hot, hated rival Penguins- the only team that could have beaten them- they would have won the Cup. But as good as that team was last year, this team is even better. And I would like to think and hope, they are fiercely resolved to not let anything stand in their path, and primed for their long-awaited run to the elusive Cup. Last years pain- and the pain of many prior years of painfully falling short- will not be forgotten, and fuel them through each round. 

Last year the juggernaut Caps clinched everything with a month to go in the season, had nothing to really play for down the stretch, and perhaps lost some of their edge going into the playoffs. But this team has been in a brawl with the fierce Metro competition, and down the stretch when things got tight and they needed to step on the gas, they still pulled away and got hot at the very end, winning 11 of 13 to close it out. 

Yes, I am hopeful and optimistic that THIS Capitals team is on their way, and ready for their long-awaited, well-deserved, and elusive Stanley Cup. Bring on the competition. Bring on the Pens. I believe THIS Caps team is a juggernaut. And right up there with the historically good '91 Redskins, will hopefully emerge as one of the greatest championship teams this area has ever seen. 

Decision Time: Kirk Cousins

Last year during the offseason, I wrote about why the Redskins absolutely needed to sign Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal. There were basically two decisions that were being heavily weighed: sign to a long-term deal after his first full- and really good season- or, place the franchise tag on him, essentially creating more of a prove-it season, determining if he was deserving of a long-term, huge $ contract. The decision was made, and with no long-term deal being reached by the 7/15 deadline, the franchise tag was indeed placed on him for the 2016 season. 

In a lot of ways, the 2016 season for Cousins was even better than the 2015 season. He surpassed his 2015 yards (and Redskins QB record) total and fell just short of the elite and revered 5,000 passing yards mark, at a gaudy 4,917. Why elite, in terms of 5,000+ yards? Because the only QB's in NFL history to pass for 5,000+ yards are Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Dan Marino and Matthew Stafford. That's it. Cousins completed 67% of his passes, good for 8th in the NFL, and ahead of Aaron Rodgers. He was also 3rd overall in yards per attempt at 8.11, making the completion % that much more impressive. He was 13th overall with 25 TD passes, ahead of MVP candidate Matt Stafford. Led by Cousins, the high-octane offense certainly had no problems moving the ball, as they finished #2 overall in the NFL with 39.8 yards per drive. In total yards per game, the offense finished with a team record and staggering total of 6,454 yards, good for 3rd overall in the NFL. And I might add, if not for the red-zone offensive inefficiencies, the team point totals (and QB passes for Cousins) could have been a lot higher. And then in QB rating, Cousins was #7 overall at 97.2.

But perhaps even more impressive is when you take into consideration the advanced stats of several other key elements in evaluating QB's. Some of these, I had never even heard of until doing this expanded research! Now the first, and more commonly known is the overall "QBR", which takes into account several factors such as: passes dropped, passes thrown away intentionally, and scrambles and planned runs. Total QBR also has a "clutch" factor, for how a QB performs in high leverage situations. And beginning in 2016, QBR was also adjusted for strength of opponent. Then when we go beyond the QBR stat, there are several other advanced stats worth noting. The first is "DYAR", which is defense-adjusted yards above replacement. This is essentially the value of the QB's performance compared to replacement level, and is adjusted based on opponent and game situations, translated to total yardage. Cousins was ranked #3 overall in DYAR. Another stat is "DVOA", which is defense-adjusted value over average. These stats represent a QB's value per play, over an average QB in similar in-game situations. Cousins ranked #5 overall in this stat. 

Outside of these specific impressive stats for overall evaluation, I then came across some additional eye-popping categories that really jumped out to me. Al Galdi, one of my personal favorite local sports radio guys (also a die-hard Redskins and O's fan like myself!), is quite simply one of the best statisticians, and especially advanced analytics guys I know of. He put together some incredible factors to consider, as to how much better Kirk Cousins may be than looking at the initial surface of the most commonly known stats of evaluation. Besides some of the advanced stats I mentioned above, Galdi also references how Kirk led ALL NFL QB's in "air yards" in 2016. Galdi says,

"Air Yards are the total yards a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.  The number is arrived at by subtracting Yards After Catch (YAC) from total passing yards.  The idea with tracking Air Yards is to differentiate between those quarterbacks who are Checkdown Charlies or benefit greatly from YAC from those quarterbacks who “earn” their passing yardage with accurate and downfield throwing.  Kirk’s 2,939 Air Yards per SportingCharts.com were 143 more than the next-best total (Drew Brees’ 2,796).  Remember this the next time you hear that Kirk is just a dink-and-dunk passer or is simply a product of the system or his weapons.  Kirk was 10th in the NFL in Air Yards in 2015 (2,258)."

The next stat that Galdi mentions that jumped out to me that I was not aware of is that Cousins faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses that any QB faced during the 2016 season. He elaborates to say,

"Nine of the Redskins' 16 games were against teams that finished the season in the top 11 of the NFL in total defense: Pittsburgh (no. 11), the Giants twice (no. 2), Baltimore (no. 6), Philadelphia twice (no. 4), Minnesota (no. 9), Arizona (no. 3) and Carolina (no. 10). The Redskins faced just the 28th-toughest schedule in 2015. A lot of people like to discount Kirk's 2015 due to the opposition. Fine. Then upgrade his 2016 due to the opposition."

So now a big question is, how should Kirk Cousins be considered and "ranked" overall among the top NFL QB's? Should he be considered a top 10 QB? Or, perhaps even top 5? Where would the league analysts and GM's have him? No doubt, a tough answer. Personally, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Cousins is not one of the top 5- elite QB's in the league. I also don't think it's necessarily unreasonable to say he's not in the top 10. Would most NFL coaches and GM's say they would take 5, or perhaps even 10 QB's ahead of Cousins if having their pick? Perhaps. This is a key factor. That said, do I think that one day, Cousins could widely be considered a top 10- possibly even a top 5 QB? Yes! At only 28, having played only 2 full seasons in the league, and showing continued improvement in his play, why not think he can get better? Though the stats aren't everything, they certainly help paint a good picture. I am personally hopeful, and think he can and will get even better. Besides his on the field success and improvement, he has the kinds of intangibles that I believe makes him the kind of guy you want to build your team around. He works extremely hard- on his body physically, in the film room, and on the field. He's a leader. And he's humble. One of the best windows I have personally benefitted from in trying to evaluate who Kirk Cousins is and how he thinks is simply by listening to his many weekly in-season interviews on 106.7 "The Fan" with Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier. There are little things I have picked up on that I think are impressive intangibles, such as the way he talks about his diet and sleep: What he eats, and when he allows himself "cheat meals". When he sleeps, and how much sleep he needs. He is no doubt very disciplined. In his interview immediately following the disappointing and devastating season ending loss to the Giants, Cousins said several things that caught my attention to enhance my feelings about him personally and his outstanding intangibles. One thing he said- and it was also how he said it- was how he wished he could just get right back at it, and begin relentless preparation for the next game- and the next season, right now. The loss stung. He was appropriately affected by it. And when talking about the game clinching INT, he completely took it on himself and accepted blame, talking about the way he threw it, and perhaps waiting too long and second guessing himself. He accepted it as a man. No blame shifting. He also talked about ways he believes he needs to improve his play. And when ending the call, he communicated his gratefulness and love to both Grant and Danny for the opportunity all season, and for the great times. Very articulate. Very genuine. And very humble. The kind of guy I would personally want to build my team around. 

Getting back to how he is currently "ranked" among the current NFL QB's. Even if he's not currently a "top 5" or "top 10" QB, what does the current NFL market say about his value? Does he deserve to be paid as a top 5 QB, in terms of what he has accomplished in his career vs. the current top 5 paid QB's? Now of course I would say no, as would most people. But that's not the point. One factor to consider is the current supply and demand of top QB talent. In this QB-driven league with so many teams desperately needing help, if Cousins is indeed made available on the open market, multiple teams would be clamoring for his services and likely create a bidding war. No doubt the market would likely get him paid "top 5" $ in this scenario. Next, with the rapidly increasing salary cap and thus contracts continually on the rise, the total amount that a "top" QB currently makes will soon not seem like as much in relative comparison to the salaries that the upward market trend will soon command. The key factor is more about the percentage of the teams cap space that the current QB market has and will command, which of course will make the total $ number a little higher than some of the comparable percentage of team cap deals that top QB's are currently paid. I have no doubt that in order for the Redskins to get a long-term deal with Cousins done, they need to have his cap percentage value be comparable to the current top 5 QB % range. And even going beyond this, it wouldn't shock me- primarily because of the mentioned supply and demand and increasing salary cap factors- if we see Cousins get the highest contract in the history of the NFL. And I will go on to say that if this is what it takes: even making Cousins the highest paid NFL player, the Redskins absolutely have to do it. The mega deal that Andrew Luck received last offseason, at 5 years and $122M and $87M guaranteed is the likely market range it will take to get a long-term deal done. 

So what do the Redskins do? What should they do? Today, February 15, 2017 is the first day that teams can assign franchise or transition tags. The official and critical two week window of opportunity begins now. By March 1st at 4PM, teams must apply one of these tag options. And then if a tag is indeed the first step, the Redskins would have until mid-July to work out a long-term deal. 

All signs seem to currently point to the Redskins applying one of the tags. And Cousins has said he is ok playing under the tag again if it comes to that. He has also said that if he had a long-term deal, he would have more "freedom to lead." My stance remains the same as it was last year, and I would say even more emphatic now than last year: the Redskins absolutely must sign Cousins to a mega, long-term deal. Sure, the possibility of a couple of high draft picks as compensation (perhaps from Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers) is somewhat enticing if offered. But the flip side risk in not retaining a highly successful- and I believe still improving- QB in this league is too substantial. For a franchise that has wandered in the QB-starved desert and had no stability at this crucial position for the better part of the past 25 plus years, they simply cannot afford to roll the dice on letting Cousins walk. Besides the risk of letting just Cousins potentially get away and not lock him up long-term, is how a decision like this would also have an organizational snowball effect. Let's say that Cousins is indeed tagged, leaving this uncertainty of his future in DC. I believe the impact of this also filters into the decisions of pending free agents of not only those who have been here (like Garcon and Jackson), but also for those who may consider coming here, when league-wide free agency begins on March 9th. If Cousins is here long-term, I would think it would make free agents more enticed to stay and come here- especially in seeing stability and continuity- whereas if there is no certainty of the future direction, I believe it makes these free agent decisions a lot more difficult.

Yes, I still trust in GM Scot McCloughan to ultimately do what he thinks is best. And I hope that what indeed would be his preference- Cousins here long-term- would happen without interference from anyone at the top and that all parties would be on the same page, and work hard towards swift and mutual resolution. The clock is ticking. And I believe the Redskins have no choice but to go all in and give Cousins what it will take to keep him here. For the long-term.